If your marketing strategy requires you to hit #1 in order to succeed, you probably need a new marketing strategy.He's talking about blockbuster movies in this post, but a lot of what he's saying applies directly to game publishers. The dinosaur game publishers are still using this model, and it is slowly killing them and their games. It means bigger teams, larger budgets, longer development time. It also means minimal design risk, and low innovation.
If you want to make games on the cutting edge, or just make games that explore new ground, then you need to get away from the idea that #1 is the place you have to be to succeed. You need to create something worth talking about, and worth playing.
If you want to be an indie developer, you need to see what Seth has to say about marketing. Start reading his blog, you'll see a who new side to marketing.